NEW MICROS AND MACROS

 Whenever we talk to any financial expert he will give us a few data point presentations that our economy is working in a certain direction either expansion or recession.

Fundamentally barometer of the economy is similar to what we learned in the pre-covid-19 era, but few are changing.

Just like the current account deficit, inflation, the fiscal deficit is the same.

But economic activity had one barometer. That sale of the new commercial vehicle was the easiest way to tell the audience about expansion in the economy.

New barometers like e-way bills are added to the list.

Post covid-19, market contraction is getting squeezed rapidly but the sale of commercial vehicles is lagging.

The no. of e-way bills are generated showing upper trends.

Month on month it is increasing, so the digital payment.

Inflation is rising  (CPI), but WPI is not matching.

After Diwali there used to be a slow down in the economy, the sale goes on till mid-December but factory output gets slow down. It is, in general, happened till last years.

Even passenger vehicle sales slow down in December but this year it is unlikely the same is going to happen.

In lockdown transaction was there with the majority was in digital form.

This year factory output is not slowing down as well as orders are up to march 2021. 

As said above the new fundamental changes are like e-way bills, new budget in Feb 2021, as well as getting funds on 1/4/2021 is new normal.

 Logistics have changed as railway and state transport, India Post is chasing new business with private players. So the need for a new vehicle is decreasing in comparison to the old system.

Cost and time in logistics are getting reduced with this is making the end product cheaper.

Also, export is competitive now, turn around time in port as well as time inland transit is getting reduced with the fast movement of goods.

Wait all the signs are changing with the formalization of the economy.

So in the future, we will get new components in defining progress in the economy. Few of the old parameters will be there with a few new ones.



Location: India

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