NEW NORMAL

 Just a few days ago I was talking to one of my friends, came to know that they are planning to take a loan for the higher education of their child. The second one is reading the interview of the LIC chairman for the proposed IPO. In the first instance, it was surprised me that they have not planned for or kept any money for higher education but they kept money in the form of land parcels in the nearby area. When we talked further, surprisingly things came out that they are surrendering the insurance policy for the same, getting money at the age of 60+ is not easy. When we concluded the talk, we have a clear picture that they have thought the money required for education and annuity very lightly The disturbing fact came in the interview, that out of 150000 nos of people who died in pandemic only 15000 to 20000 nos of people have protection planned for themselves, it is not known which type of protection and quantum of protection they have taken. It means that when we think of famil...

 Nowadays we are going through a new high in every aspect of business life. News is on the positive side only, though there is a negative side too,  the positive side is stronger than the negative side as once the vaccination drive starts market will open completely. If we see the Sensex it is touching a new high every time, so the E-way bills generated are getting increased every time. GST collection is at an all-time high, so on Yes, it is true and sustainable in nature. Going forward we will see the effect of reforms which are completed in recent time  Though the major reforms are still in WIP mode which means once implemented completely they will give more results. Jobs are created. Now the pace of jobs generation is increasing in tier two and three towns. What is going to affect us in the future is already visible. The last few blogs which we discussed are showing trends. When complete lockdown will be lifted and we will see normal activity after winter, the market w...

 A new wave of lockdown has been started in  Europe and England. The intensity of the outbreak is not known but lockdown is imposed. What is going to happen is not yet known, but there is a silver line with this also. As more and more countries are going to lock down and we are not opening up but also growing with time. Salaries are restored. The latest sale figure for residential and commercial property is increasing with luxury property inventory is reducing. Recently we heard that the textile ministry is also coming with a PLI scheme for the sector which will absorb more people into the job. Now so far ten sectors have got PLI scheme, now result of all these is visible with more and more companies are making India as their manufacturing base. A new outbreak is there in Europe will again make them dependent on other countries for their supply. After Galway Incident in Laddakh, geopolitics had changed drastically so the demand for the diversified and dependable base for suppl...

Interesting things are going on around us. Normally after Diwali, industrial production starts contracting for a few months. Again starts after the budget or financial year closing. But this year new normal is emerging  even after Diwali there is no slow down in industrial activity Experts are saying that recovery is going to be V-shaped. If we go through the recent news of various periodical also the annual summit of different Industry body we find an interesting fact that the recovery is faster than expected. Few are giving credit to the package which was given to the MSME sector. Spending on infrastructure and so on. It is also true that the total infrastructure pipeline created and under execution is very robust. If we go through the PMI or purchase manager index from JULY2020 to NOV2020 it is over and above 50 which denotes expansion in business activity. Bank credit and NPA creation data is  showing an increase in credit  to industry less NPA forming This means ther...

 Whenever we talk to any financial expert he will give us a few data point presentations that our economy is working in a certain direction either expansion or recession. Fundamentally barometer of the economy is similar to what we learned in the pre-covid-19 era, but few are changing. Just like the current account deficit, inflation, the fiscal deficit is the same. But economic activity had one barometer. That sale of the new commercial vehicle was the easiest way to tell the audience about expansion in the economy. New barometers like e-way bills are added to the list. Post covid-19, market contraction is getting squeezed rapidly but the sale of commercial vehicles is lagging. The no. of e-way bills are generated showing upper trends. Month on month it is increasing, so the digital payment. Inflation is rising  (CPI), but WPI is not matching. After Diwali there used to be a slow down in the economy, the sale goes on till mid-December but factory output gets slow down. It is,...