NEW NORMAL

 Lots of things are happening around us with one positive news being that the third wave of pandemics is getting mild or ebbing out. So the number of shots of vaccines is reaching approximately 180Cr which is getting us closer to normalcy. The business resumption index given by Nomura shows that we are reaching normalcy sooner than expected in comparison to the last two waves with minimum losses of both lives and money. All the sectors which are under closer or partial closer till now are getting opened or will be opened soon so the international flights will start normally fly by mid of march 2022. As the resumption of business activity will get normalized, the confidence of getting life normal will increase. The positive in the present scenario is that there are no riots or any incidence of protest in the public or unrest for any reason during the last two years of the pandemic. The world is going through unrest due to restrictions. So the resistance to vaccination. If we go thro...

 Conclude...... All major events happened like economic survey,  the budget, and RBI  monetary policy. The direction and language with intent are the same and concern raised with its solution for the short to long term is somewhat the same. The recovery of the economy is not fully as many sectors are not opened up . The recent lockdown due to the third wave created disruption which could have been avoided. Now, business resumption  is therewith normalcy visible, which gives confidence not only to policy maker but also the general public Their is some path breaking  things happened during the pandemics second lockdown  to till date. 1. The word disinestment have been changed with privatization, earlier it is used tobe disinvestment. 2. The government want money from retail investor in the form of small savings and mentioning it in budget. 3. The over estimate from the government budget is out with realistic estimate which is achievable and visible. 4. The bu...

 Continued.... The CAPEX for the new financial year has been increased from around 12% of GDP to 19%  of GDP, which is a good start as per our record from our history after independence also the CAPEX for asset creation and asset creation has been steadily increasing. As discussed last week, the overall government borrowing will be more with small savings having substantial. There is a higher receipt on the tax front, both personnel, and GST. The total revenue generated is increasing with self-compliance and also the tax evasion is getting more difficult as compared to earlier. As we are increasing the formalization of economic activity, there is self-awareness for compliance and getting things as per law. The new thing we are seeing is that there is a dialog between the government and stakeholders so that getting things done as per need of today and keeping us future-ready. The RBI has announced its monetary policy which is in tune with the budget and it not getting carried a...

 As discussed earlier budget sessions have already underway, key figures on the economy have been presented by the economic survey and budget itself. We will see these, but prior to these, we would see some interesting facts about the economy. The total borrowing for the current financial year is half of the budget estimate. It shows two things, first the borrowing cost of the government will reduce going forward, as the government will borrow less with options to get cheaper funds. Second, the tax collection is increasing which is creating the situation where the government borrowing need is getting reduced. As we said above the cost of funds for the government borrowing will be less as the supply of cheap money will be available in plenty for all including the government. Moreover, the government is trying to get money from small savings funds, in bulk to get its funding need from the scattered and diverse public. If the government succeeds in these, it will be a win-win situatio...